Sensitivity study of impact risk model results to thermal radiation damage model for large objects

• DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2024.02.022
• Publication Date: 2024-02-19T16:21:02Z
• Authors: Ashley M. Coates; Eric C. Stern; Christopher O. Jo...; Lorien F. Wheeler; Donovan L. Mathias
• Keywords: Overpressure; Impact energy

NASA's Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture effects different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, large object A sensitivity study is conducted determine which parameters, over what ranges, cause risks become sensitive damage. Two additional with approaches comparison. The determined current most luminous efficiency parameter that reflects model's uncertainty in amount energy contributing was apparent highest severity levels. Comparisons three showed that, addition sensitivities within models, also choice model. results were applied 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical scenario (800 m diameter, 10.29 Gt energy), ranges interest determined. At serious level, efficiencies above 0.006 (0.6%) a small chance playing an important role, while 0.0008 (0.08%) led significant role unsurvivable level. Study identify key areas where refinement better knowledge properties may be improving estimates.