Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy

• DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.06.007
• Publication Date: 2017-06-20T18:18:06Z
• Authors: Geoff Kuehne; Rick Llewellyn; David J. Pannell; Roger Wilkinson; Perry Dolling; Jackie Ouzman; Mike Ewing
• Keywords: Early adopter; Agricultural extension; Diffusion of innovations

There is much existing knowledge about the factors that influence adoption of new practices in agriculture but few attempts have been made to construct predictive quantitative models for use by those planning agricultural research, development, extension and policy. ADOPT (Adoption Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool) result such an attempt, providing predictions a practice's likely rate peak level as well estimating importance various influencing adoption. It employs conceptual framework incorporates range variables, including variables related economics, risk, environmental outcomes, farmer networks, characteristics farm farmer, ease convenience practice. The ability learn relative advantage practice, influenced both practice potential adopters, plays central role. Users respond 22 questions to: a) its advantage, b) population their perceptions c) speed learning it, d) adopters provides prediction diffusion curve sensitivity analyses In this paper model described predict demonstrated using examples crop types, cropping technology grazing options. As predictions, designed increase understanding consideration process involved