Localizing agricultural impacts of 21 century climate pathways in data scarce catchments: A case study of the Nyando catchment, Kenya

• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108696
• Publication Date: 2024-02-14T06:52:10Z
• Authors: Katoria Lekarkar; Albert Nkwasa; Lorenzo Villani; Ann van Griensven
• Keywords: Agriculture (General); Crop water use; Agricultural industries; SUGARCANE; S1-972; CARBON-DIOXIDE; CROP-YIELD; Climate change; SWAT; TEMPERATURE; agriculture; HD9000-9495; Science & Technology; LAND-USE; Crop yields; Sub-Saharan Africa; SWAT+; Agriculture; Agronomy; RIVER-BASIN; MODEL; climate change; Climate change; Agriculture; Crop water use; Crop yields; Sub-Saharan Africa; SWAT plus; Physical Sciences; Water Resources; SWAT plus; GROWTH; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; MAIZE

Climate change is projected to increase the volatility of agricultural productivity within Sub-Saharan Africa region. However, current knowledge climate impacts in this region largely derived from coarse-grid global datasets that lack sufficient detail for local applications. The are thus generalized across large spatial scales, with a limited representation differential exposure It necessary conduct localized assessments derive vulnerabilities and develop context-specific mitigation strategies. This study utilizes downscaled outputs regional models quantify effects on maize sugarcane crops at catchment-scale, hereby Nyando catchment Kenya. findings indicate will reduce suitability conditions growth both crops, sub-optimal increasing by up 600%. analysis crop yields show decline about 23.9% under RCP4.5 scenario 29.4% RCP8.5. Sugarcane similarly decrease 17.0% 28.6% RCP8.5 respectively. underlying climatic changes suggest future warming outweighs precipitation explaining yield declines. More broadly, methodology applied can be readily adapted utilized areas throughout By adopting impact assessment approach policymakers sector players empowered information higher which empowers targeted, region-specific adaptation