Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team

• DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103197
• Publication Date: 2021-03-20T17:43:43Z
• Authors: Nikolaos Kourentzes; Andrea Saayman; Philippe Jean-Pierre; Davide Provenzano; Mondher Sahli; Neelu Seetaram; Serena Volo
• Keywords: Visitor pattern; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.