Projections and Epidemiology of Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States to 2040-2060

• DOI: 10.1016/j.artd.2023.101152
• Publication Date: 2023-05-30T17:17:44Z
• Authors: Ittai Shichman; Neil Askew; Akram Habibi; Leo Nherera; William Macaulay; Thorsten Seyler; Ran Schwarzkopf
• Keywords: Joint arthroplasty; Baseline (sea)

National projections of future joint arthroplasties are useful in understanding the changing burden surgery and related outcomes on health system. The aim this study is to update literature by producing Medicare for revision total arthroplasty procedures from 2040 through 2060.The uses 2000-2019 data CMS Part-B Summary combines procedure counts using CPT codes procedures. In 2019, knee (rTKA) hip (rTHA) totaled 53,217 30,541, respectively, forming a baseline which we generated point forecasts between 2020 2060 95% forecast intervals (FI).On average, model projects an annual growth rate 1.77% rTHAs 4.67% rTKAs. By 2040, were projected be 43,514 (95% FI = 37,429-50,589) rTKAs 115,147 105,640-125,510). 2060, was 61,764 49,927-76,408) 286,740 253,882-323,852).Based 2019 volume counts, log-linear exponential increase rTHA 42% 101% 2060. Similarly, estimated rTKA 149% 520% An accurate projection demands important understand healthcare utilization surgeon demand. This finding only applicable population further analysis other groups.