A statewide, weather-regime based stochastic weather generator for process-based bottom-up climate risk assessments in California – Part II: Thermodynamic and dynamic climate change scenarios

• DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100485
• Publication Date: 2024-05-20T10:46:11Z
• Authors: Nasser Najibi; Alejandro J. Perez; Wyatt Arnold; Andrew Schwarz; Romain Maendly; Scott Steinschneider
• Keywords: Social sciences (General); H1-99; 0301 basic medicine; Water resources; 03 medical and health sciences; Meteorology. Climatology; Climate change; Dynamic change; Bottom-up; Thermodynamic change; QC851-999; Decision-making

This study is the second of a two-part series presenting novel weather regime-based stochastic generator to support bottom-up climate vulnerability assessments water systems in California. In Part 2 this series, we present how model used develop an ensemble change scenarios based on both thermodynamic and dynamic signals change. The includes suite 30 scenarios, each consisting 1000 years simulated daily data (precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) at 6 km resolution across entire state represent range plausible changes average precipitation, precipitation extremes that are reflective responses atmosphere warming. An additional two also created frequency regimes (e.g., change). Results from these reveal when effects anthropogenic combined with realizations natural variability, severity California amplified significantly. addition, recent large-scale patterns atmospheric circulation can have impacts similar magnitude large (>10%) declines particularly respect drought. developed work designed allow managers systematically test sensitivity their system different combinations change, so key vulnerabilities be discovered then addressed through adaptation planning.