City-level pathways to carbon peak and neutrality in China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100102
• Publication Date: 2024-05-15T14:40:27Z
• Authors: Li Zhang; Jianhui Ruan; Zhe Zhang; Ziyu Qin; Zhongyi Lei; Bofeng Cai; Shouyang Wang; Ling Tang
• Keywords: Carbon fibers; Carbon neutrality; Emission intensity

Chinese cities need independent but synergetic dual-carbon abatement roadmaps to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. Using source-level data, we develop a time-series, full-scale emission inventory for all from 2005 2020, exploring associated heterogeneous homogeneous patterns. We find that 31% of have had significant peak, with the main driver being intensity reductions through efficiency gains structural improvements. Despite discrepant levels socioeconomic determinants, uniform trajectory in changes exists across via four phases: growth 8%–9% annually (95% confidence interval) before peaking; plateau decline by 9%–13% 5–7 years; plain slower declines. project if follow their early-peaked counterparts' mitigation pathways, China will reach peak 2026 at 13 Gt neutrality during 2051–2058, revealing feasibility goals importance long-reaching, city-targeted planning.