A framework to assess spatio-temporal variations of potential non-point source pollution risk for future land-use planning

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108751
• Publication Date: 2022-03-10T23:26:35Z
• Authors: Hualin Li; Jianjun Zhang; Shouhong Zhang; Wenlong Zhang; Sunxun Zhang; Peidan Yu; Zhuoyuan Song
• Keywords: Critical source areas; Ecology; PNPI model; Framework; 0207 environmental engineering; Risk zoning; 02 engineering and technology; Non-point source pollution; Land-use; 01 natural sciences; QH540-549.5; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Quantifying spatio-temporal variations of non-point source pollution (NSP) risk induced by land-use change provides insights into effective control NSP through optimization. However, there is a lack efficient tools for assessing the under various scenarios. In this study, framework, which couples modified potential indicator (PNPI) model with future simulation (FLUS) model, was developed and applied caused both historical possible in rapidly urbanized basin (i.e., upper Beiyun River basin, Beijing) during 1980–2030. The PNPI tested monitored water quality data an accuracy ratio 0.75, FLUS can accurately simulate (Kappa coefficient = 0.74). Due to rapid urbanization, area extremely high-risk zones went up, even though farmlands decreased, green spaces increased 1980–2020. are different 2020–2030 ecological security scenario will slow down growth rate risk, however, total increase 40.17 km2 2030 urbanization scenario. Coupling tool set support planning assess data-limited regions.