An analytical framework for supply network risk propagation: A Bayesian network approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.034
• Publication Date: 2014-12-08T07:00:26Z
• Authors: Myles D. Garvey; Steven Carnovale; Sengun Yeniyurt
• Keywords: Supply chain network; Network model; Supply network

Abstract There are numerous examples of supply chain disruptions that have occurred which have had devastating impacts not only on a single firm but also on various other firms in the supply network. We utilize a Bayesian Network (BN) approach and develop a model of risk propagation in a supply network. The model takes into account the inter-dependencies among different risks, as well as the idiosyncrasies of a supply chain network structure. Specific risk measures are derived from this model and a simulation study is utilized to illustrate how these measures can be used in a supply chain setting.