Stochastic multi-attribute group decision-making for long-term comprehensive operation of cascade reservoirs under multiple uncertainties

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101758
• Publication Date: 2024-04-01T22:11:20Z
• Authors: Hu Hu; Qiting Zuo; He Li; Kan Yang
• Keywords: Inflow

The Three Gorges cascade (TGC) reservoirs, China. Since uncertainties inherent in inflow forecasting, elevation-storage, discharge capacity, flood routing, and the preferences of decision makers (DMs) persist attribute measurements (AMs) weights (AWs), problems where multiple DMs select best compromise scheme for long-term comprehensive operation reservoirs considering numerous attributes become a stochastic multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) process. To represent uncertain AMs AWs consider bounded rationality DMs, we propose MAGDM with integrated multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) gray cumulative prospect theory (GCPT), namely, SMAA-GCPT. After quantifying uncertainties, SMAA-GCPT is used to model imperfect calculable probability distributions map sampled utility values reflect overall performance assuming rationality. Experiments on TGC indicate that can effectively differentiate alternative schemes harmonize conflicting benefits risks TGC, higher reliability than SMAA-2 SMAA-GRA. influence more obvious AWs. error risk primarily sensitive forecasting uncertainty, followed by routing less affected elevation-storage capacity curves.