Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic

• DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017
• Publication Date: 2021-05-06T16:20:12Z
• Authors: Shengjie Lai; Nick W. Ruktanonchai; Alessandra Carioli; Corrine W. Ruktan...; Jessica R. Floyd; Olivia Prosper; Chi Zhang; Xiangjun Du; Weizhong Yang; Andrew J. Tatem
• Keywords: Pandemic; Geolocation; Contact tracing; Herd Immunity; Metapopulation; Social distance; Interquartile range

Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed understand their effectiveness regions time. Based on population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data 135 countries or territories during first wave of pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model measure effect travel contact containing COVID-19 outbreaks regions. We found that if these interventions had not deployed, cumulative number cases could shown 97-fold (interquartile range 79–116) increase, as May 31, 2020. However, depended upon timing, duration, intensity interventions, with variations case severity seen populations, regions, seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines widely available herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize certain degree at relaxation intervention stage will likely be avoid rapid resurgences subsequent lockdowns.