CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe

• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112640
• Publication Date: 2021-10-09T01:49:40Z
• Authors: Annelis K. Breed; Daniel Speth; Patrick Plötz
• Keywords: Zero emission; Heavy duty; Market share; Alternative fuel vehicle; Stock (firearms)

Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required the newly sold by 30% until 2030 compared 2019/2020. Accordingly, several have announced introduction zero emission (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, sales shares trucks meet targets not analyzed in literature yet. Here, we derive share scenarios for Europe based on reduction options their associated costs. We find that will require at least 4–22% be 2030, depending strategy improve diesel This implies stock 2–11% ZEV 2030. Yet, high ZEVs super credits granted allow target with little conventional fleet leading low actual reduction.