Projections of soil loss by water erosion in Europe by 2050

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.07.012
• Publication Date: 2021-07-22T07:28:36Z
• Authors: Panos Panagos; Cristiano Ballabio; Mihaly Himics; Simone Scarpa; Francis Matthews; Mariia Bogonos; Jean Poesen; Pasquale Borrelli
• Keywords: Water erosion

Changes in future soil erosion rates are driven by climatic conditions, land use patterns, socio-economic development, farmers' choices, and importantly modified agro-environmental policies. This study simulates the impact of expected change projections on water (sheet rill processes) 2050 within agricultural areas European Union UK, compared to a current representative baseline (2016). We used Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) adjusted at continental scale with rainfall erosivity change. Future is predicted using an average composite 19 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIP5) WorldClim dataset across three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5). Concerning crop dynamics, we provided Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis (CAPRI) model. Depending RCP scenario, estimate +13 %-22.5 % increase mean rate EU rising estimated 3.07 t ha−1 yr−1 (2016) between 3.46 (RCP2.6 scenario) 3.76 (RCP8.5 scenario). Here, disentangle climate relation losses. Projected UK indicates overall pasture coverage place croplands. reduce (-3%). In contrast, increases (+15.7 %–25.5 %) will force important requiring further targeted intervention measures. Given that policies be most effective mechanisms offset this rates, proposes conservation instruments foreseen (CAP) run policy scenarios. A application cover crops hotspots combined limited disturbance measures can partially or completely mitigate effect Effective mitigation losses requires for least 50 above 5 yr−1.