Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.005
• Publication Date: 2017-07-13T08:46:29Z
• Authors: Deborah P. Shutt; Carrie A. Manore; Stephen Pankavich; Aaron T. Porter; Sara Y. Del Valle
• Keywords: Zika Virus; Basic reproduction number

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks plan mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of how they vary across regions is a challenging problem. We developed mathematical model the 2015/2016 outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, Suriname. fit publicly available data provided by Pan Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation estimate parameter distributions provide uncertainty quantification. The indicated that country-level analysis was not appropriate Colombia. then estimated basic reproduction number range between 4 6 Salvador Suriname with median 4.3 5.3, respectively. reporting rate be around 16% 18% total sizes 73,395 21,647 people, estimates highlights need research collection will better constrain ranges.