Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas at regional scale in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)

• DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107661
• Publication Date: 2021-02-21T02:03:09Z
• Authors: Mauro Rossi; Roberto Sarro; Paola Reichenbach; Rosa María Mateos
• Keywords: Rockfall; Thematic map

Modelling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires various inputs, including an accurate location of the source areas. Source areas are controlled by geomorphological, geological, or other geo-environmental factors may largely influence results modelling. In Canary Islands, rockfalls extremely common pose a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructure, destroying livelihoods. 2011, volcanic event on island El Hierro triggered numerous that affected strategic infrastructures, with substantial impact local population. During emergency, efforts performed map model in considerably steep landscape characterising were not trivial. To better identify areas, we propose probabilistic modelling framework applies combination multiple statistical models using area locations mapped field as dependent variable set thematic data independent variables. The use input morphometric parameters derived from Digital Elevation Model lithological expression mechanical behaviour rocks. analysis different training validation scenarios allowed us test sensitivity data, select optimal configuration, evaluate applicability outside final obtained for entire provides probability given being potential can be used runout simulation