Species distribution modelling of Monotheca buxifolia (Falc.) A. DC.: Present distribution and impacts of potential climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13417
• Publication Date: 2023-02-03T07:31:14Z
• Authors: Fayaz Ali; Nasrullah Khan; Arshad Mahmood Khan; Kishwar Ali; Farhat Abbas
• Keywords: Social sciences (General); H1-99; 0106 biological sciences; Future prediction; Q1-390; Science (General); Biodiversity loss; Potential habitat suitability; Species distribution models; Conservation planning; 01 natural sciences; Research Article; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is an important tool to examine the possible change in population range and/or niche-shift under current environment and predicted climate change. Monotheca buxifolia economically ecologically tree species inhabiting Pakistan Afghanistan dense patches, contracting rapidly. This study hypothesize that might remarkably influence existing pattern of M. area. A total 75 occurrence locations were identified comprising as a dominant species. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was utilized perform SDM (the 1970s-2000s) two future scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways: SSPs 245 585) time periods 2050s 2070s). optimal model settings assessed, simulation precision assessed by examining partial area receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC-ROC). results showed out 39 considered bio-climatic, topographic, edaphic, remote sensing variables which preliminary model, 6 including precipitation warmest quarter, topographic diversity, global human modification terrestrial land, normalized difference vegetation index, isothermality, elevation (in order) most influential drivers, all reduced SDMs. high predictive performance (pAUC-ROC; >0.9) SDMs recorded. about 67,684 km2 geographical suitable habitat (p > 0.8) for buxifolia, leading country (with 54,975 land area) scenario. Overall, face considerable loss (i.e. rate %; -27 -107) future, simultaneously northward (high elevation) niche shift scenarios. Hence, development implementation coordinated conservation program required on priority basis save its native geographic range.