A simple method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables

• DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19729
• Publication Date: 2023-09-01T16:05:50Z
• Authors: Thitithep Sitthiyot; Kanyarat Holasut
• Keywords: Consensus forecast; Economic forecasting

Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether forecasters skillful enough forecast future values of those variables. Here a method joint evaluation skill directional forecasts multiple introduced. The simple use does not rely on complicated assumptions required conventional statistical methods measuring accuracy forecast. data GDP growth inflation three organizations from Thailand, namely, Bank Fiscal Policy Office, Office National Economic Social Development Council as well actual Thailand between 2001 2021 employed order demonstrate how could be evaluate skills practice. overall results indicate that these somewhat forecasting direction-of-changes when no band ± 1 standard deviation forecasted outcome considered. However, 0.5% introduced, are, at best, little better than intelligent guess work.