A Dutch prediction tool to assess the risk of incidental gallbladder cancers after cholecystectomies for benign gallstone disease

• DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2022.11.005
• Publication Date: 2022-11-16T03:04:55Z
• Authors: Bartholomeus J.G....; Sander M.J. van K...; Wouter K.G. Leclercq; Loes Janssen; Rudi M.H. Roumen; Cees H.C. Dejong; Gerrit D. Slooter; K. Bosscha; W.T. van den Broek; D.K. Wasowicz; M.J. van Hoogstraten; J.L.M. Konsten; S.W. Nienhuijs; A.M. Rijken; J.A. Wegdam
• Keywords: Brier score; Gallbladder Cancer; Gallbladder disease

Despite the increasing implementation of selective histopathologic policies for post-cholecystectomy evaluation gallbladder specimens in low-incidence countries, fear missing incidental cancer (GBC) persists. This study aimed to develop a diagnostic prediction model selecting gallbladders that require additional histopathological examination after cholecystectomy.A registration-based retrospective cohort nine Dutch hospitals was conducted between January 2004 and December 2014. Data were collected using secure linkage three patient databases, potential clinical predictors selected. The validated internally by bootstrapping. Its discriminative capacity accuracy tested assessing area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Nagelkerke's pseudo-R2, Brier score.Using 22,025 gallbladders, including 75 GBC cases, with following variables developed: age, sex, urgency, type surgery, indication surgery. After correction optimism, R2 score 0.32 88%, respectively, indicating moderate fit. AUC 90.3% (95% confidence interval, 86.2%-94.4%), good ability.We developed cholecystectomy rule out GBC.