China's vehicle electrification impacts on sales, fuel use, and battery material demand through 2050: Optimizing consumer and industry decisions

• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103375
• Publication Date: 2021-10-29T00:48:00Z
• Authors: Shiqi Ou; I-Yun Lisa Hsieh; Xin He; Zhenhong Lin; Rujie Yu; Yan Zhou; Jessey Bouchard
• Keywords: Market share

The promotion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is pivotal to China's carbon neutrality strategy. Therefore, it important understand the vehicle market evolution and its impacts in terms costs, sales, industry fuel economy, PEV's battery material demand. By examining technologies, cost, policy incentives, infrastructure, driver behavior, this study quantitatively projects dynamics passenger from 2020 2050 under multiple technology scenarios. 2050, could gain significant share-as much as 30.4%-64.6%; industry's sales-weighted average consumption reach 1.81-3.11 L/100 km. Cumulative demand PEVs soar over 700 GWh by whereas recycling alone satisfy about 60% 2050. key metal supplies-lithium, cobalt, nickel-for PEV are projected, nickel should be concerned more coming decades.