Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission

• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106618
• Publication Date: 2023-04-11T06:49:52Z
• Authors: Klara M. Wanelik; Mike Begon; Andy Fenton; Rachel A. Norman; Pablo M. Beldomenico
• Keywords: Herd Immunity; Positive feedback; Basic reproduction number; Feedback loop

Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence superspreaders, irrespective whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals by superspreaders may be more likely become themselves. Here, we begin explore, theoretically, the effects such a positive feedback loop on (1) final epidemic size, (2) herd immunity threshold, (3) basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) peak prevalence using generic model for hypothetical acute viral infection illustrative parameter values. We show loops can profound effect our chosen outcomes, even when transmission advantage is moderate, despite remaining low. argue superspreader in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should investigated further, both theoretically empirically.