The value of earlier-in-life systolic and diastolic blood pressure for cardiovascular risk prediction

• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109097
• Publication Date: 2024-02-02T16:51:22Z
• Authors: Andreas Leiherer; Wolfgang Brozek; Axel Muendlein; Hanno Ulmer; Christoph H. Saely; Peter Fraunberger; Gabriele Nagel; Emanuel Zitt; Heinz Drexel; Hans Concin
• Keywords: Public health; Biological sciences; Geriatrics; Science; Q; Health sciences; Article

Blood pressure (BP) varies over a lifetime. This cardiovascular observation study (OS) compared the predictive value of earlier- and later-in-life blood pressure (BP) in 1,497 cardiovascular disease patients utilizing readings taken during a health survey (HS) and 15 years later from the same subjects at the baseline of this OS. Prediction of the cardiovascular risk during the OS follow-up (21 years) was significantly more effective if the earlier BP readings at HS were used instead of recent OS readings (NRI = 0.30, p < 0.001). For HS readings, each 10 mm Hg increase of systolic and diastolic BP was associated with a 17% and 20% higher risk, respectively. At OS, systolic BP lost significance and diastolic BP reversed its association. Noteworthy, different BP categorizations (European vs. US guidelines) yielded similar results. This study highlights the poor predictive power of BP readings in elderly cardiovascular disease patients but emphasizes the significant prognostic value of earlier-in-life BP.