Modeling HCV elimination recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: Pathways to regain progress

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.11.021
• Publication Date: 2022-11-19T07:20:35Z
• Authors: Sarah Blach; Kimberly A. Brown; Robert S. Brown; Pierre M. Gholam; Norah A. Terrault; Chris Estes; Homie A. Razavi
• Keywords: Pandemic; harm reduction; Hepatitis C

As of 2019, the United States (US) was not on track to achieve targets for elimination, due increasing incidence and treatment barriers. In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic disrupted HCV services globally in US. healthcare normalize, there is an urgent need reassess progress evaluate scenarios that restore a pathway toward elimination.We updated validated Markov model estimate HCV-related morbidity mortality Five were developed bookend possible outcomes wake pandemic. These included 1) return pre-COVID-19 forecasts; 2) elimination through harm reduction; 3) long-term disruptions; 4/5) increased without reduction, starting either 2022 or 2025.From 2014-2019, more than 1.2 million patients treated Elimination 2030 could be achieved US by treating additional 3.2-3.3 from 2020 2030, preventing new infections expanded reduction programs up 2.7 patients. Intervention prevent over 30,000 HCC cases 29,000 liver-related deaths.The has made strides but gains lost However, it still avert nearly deaths rates. This requires coordinated effort entire community.