The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jsps.2023.101886
• Publication Date: 2023-11-30T12:48:00Z
• Authors: Ahmad Alhomaid; Abdullah H. Alzeer; Fahad Alsaawi; Abdulaziz Aljandal; Rami Al-Jafar; Marwan Albalawi; Dana Alotaibi; Raghad Alabdullatif; Razan AlGhassab; Dalia M. Mominkhan; Muaddi Alharbi; Ahmad A. Alghamdi; Maryam Almoklif; Mohammed K. Alabd...
• Keywords: Pandemic

This paper aims to measure the impact of implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) during pandemic using simulation modeling. To NPI, a hybrid agent-based and system dynamics model was built validated. Data were collected prospectively on weekly basis. The core epidemiological is based complex Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Dead epidemic dynamics. Reverse engineering performed basis throughout study period as mean for validation which reported four outcomes: total cases, active ICU deaths cases. each observed values cases captured compared projected from simulation. divided into rounds incubation periods (cycles 14 days each). behavioral change spread disease interpreted NPIs that occurred at beginning cycle. measured by initial reproduction rate (R0) . After 18 weeks reverse process, achieved 0.4% difference prediction end period. results estimated led 64% R0. Our breakdown analysis NPI indicates banning going schools had greatest infection (24%). We used modeling taken KSA government. finding further supports notion early adoption can effectively limit COVID-19. It also building mathematical scenarios.