Incorporating adult age into mosquito population models: Implications for predicting abundances in changing climates

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112084
• Publication Date: 2025-03-01T23:15:46Z
• Authors: Renato Andrade; Steven M. White; Christina A. Cobbold

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) pose increasing threats under future climate change scenarios and an understanding of mosquito population dynamics is pivotal to predicting risk MBDs. Most models that describe often assume adult life-history independent age yet senescence known affect mortality, fecundity other key biological traits. Despite this, little about the effects at level population, especially varying temperature scenarios. We develop a stage-structured delayed differential equations (DDEs) model incorporating abiotic environment shed light on complex interactions between age, temperature, dynamics. Taking Culex pipiens, major vector West Nile Virus, as our study species results show failing consider can lead underestimates abundances predicted also find age-dependent mechanisms combined with density-dependent mortality immature stages result in decreasing extreme temperatures. With work, we underscore need for more studies age. Not accounting compromise accuracy abundance estimates has implications MBD outbreaks.