Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

• DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090
• Publication Date: 2024-04-17T03:08:52Z
• Authors: Manuel Esperon-Ro...; Rachael V. Gallagher; Niels Souverijns; Quentin Lejeune; Carl-Friedrich Sc...; Mark G. Tjoelker
• Keywords: 550; Public Administration; Environmental Studies; Social Sciences; Urban heat; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Precipitation; HEAT; Regional & Urban Planning; 01 natural sciences; Safety margin; Climate change; TREE; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences; Urban tree; Science & Technology; Ecology; Geography; Maximum temperature; Urban Studies; Geography, Physical; Physical Geography; Physical Sciences; Life Sciences & Biomedicine; Species selection

Climate change represents a threat to the performance and persistence of urban forests multiple benefits they provide city dwellers. Here, we use novel approach identify species areas at high risk climate using Melbourne, Australia, as case study. We derive safety margin, calculated based on climatic tolerance two extreme variables (maximum temperature warmest month, MTWM; precipitation driest quarter, PDQ), for 474 tree recorded in Melbourne baseline (average 2011–2020) future (2041–2070) conditions. For MTWM, 218 (46%) are exceeding margins; this number is predicted increase 322 (68%) by 2055 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. PDQ, 255 257 (54%) identified climates, respectively. Using georeferenced locations trees high-resolution data, map spatial patterns risk, showing across city. demonstrate how inventories metrics can aid identification vulnerable prioritise monitoring assist planning.