Estimating the COVID-19 mortality burden over two full years of the pandemic in Malaysia

• DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100456
• Publication Date: 2022-04-27T02:57:13Z
• Authors: LeeAnn Tan; Shubash Shander G...; Yee Mang Chan; Nazirah Alias; Nur Hamizah Nasar...; Wan-Fei Khaw; Azahadi Omar
• Keywords: Pandemic

Malaysia reported its first known local transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on 5 February 2020.1Ahmad N.A. Chong Z.L. Abd Rahman S. et al.First cluster COVID-19 in Malaysia: public health response.Int J Travel Med Glob Health. 2020; 8: 124-130https://doi.org/10.34172/ijtmgh.2020.21Crossref Google Scholar On 17 March 2020, two deaths from disease 2019 (COVID-19) country occurred—just a week after World Health Organization (WHO) formally declared growing outbreak pandemic.2Cucinotta D. Vanelli M. WHO declares pandemic.Acta Bio Atenei Parm. 91: 157-160https://doi.org/10.23750/abm.v91i1.9397Crossref PubMed Scopus (2641) Two years into current pandemic, there have been over 32,000 linked to three major epidemic waves and cumulative case count million, making it one most affected countries Western Pacific region.3COVID-19 situation report for Region #92: 9 2022 - 15 2022. https://www.who.int/westernpacific/publications/m/item/covid-19-situation-report-for-the-western-pacific-region-92-9-february-2022-15-february-2022. Accessed 22 2022.Google Absolute death counts are often metric choice official reports (and accompanying graphics—often large, bold numbers—circulated through social media or chat groups be fixated upon by populace) summarising latest statistics. Burden approaches, such as measuring life lost (YLL) owing premature disease, offer more appropriate than number mortality burden population sub-populations recognising that at younger ages greater impact health. This study aims estimate calculating YLL full pandemic Malaysia, compare rates across different states, directly attributable relative other leading causes injury pre-pandemic times. Data individual occurred up (which marks two-year anniversary country's first-known locally transmitted case) were obtained repository provided updated regularly Ministry Malaysia.4Official data Malaysia. Powered CPRC, CPRC Hospital System, MKAK, MySejahtera. GitHub. https://github.com/MoH-Malaysia/covid19-public. To calculate each age/sex group, we multiplied group age- sex-conditional expectancy same defined national table published Department Statistics (DOSM).5Wyper G.M.A. Assunção R.M.A. Colzani E. al.Burden methods: guide disability-adjusted years.Int Public 2021; 66https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2021.619011Crossref (17) We used year 20176Abridged Life Tables : 2017. (DOSM). 2017 https://newss.statistics.gov.my/newss-portalx/ep/epFreeDownloadContentSearch.seam?cid=28327. Scholar—the employed recently available estimates.7Centre Disease Research (CBODR)Malaysian Injury Study 2015-2017. Institute (IKU), Selangor, Malaysia2020Google facilitate international comparison, also present results separately calendar 2020 2021, additionally calculated applying values Global (GBD 2019) reference table8Global Collaborative NetworkGlobal Reference Table. Metrics Evaluation (IHME), Seattle, United States2021Google (see supplementary material). rates, state-level mid-year estimates DOSM.9Population projections (revised) 2010-2040. 2016 https://newss.statistics.gov.my/newss-portalx/ep/epFreeDownloadContentSearch.seam?cid=28278. cases surfaced 32,063 recorded country. Most (31,059 out deaths) highest 60-64 age (13%) men 80+ (18%) women (Supplementary Table 1a). Male outnumbered female ratio 1·35 1. estimated accounted 683,903 past years—approximately 21 per person who died COVID-19, 1,998 100,000 people. Men amount people compared (2,132 vs. 1,853). 55–59 men, 45-49 (Figure 1). The state Selangor greatest capita, with Federal Territory Labuan coming close second 3,473 3,457 people, respectively 2; Supplementary 3) . 2021 (665,029 YLL) exceeds caused ischaemic heart which was cause fatal times 3). associated lower tract infections 3).7Centre ScholarFigure 2Estimated states federal territories, Malaysia.View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download (PPT)Figure 3Comparison overall due 10 20177.View (PPT) It is notable alone approximates total (conventionally represented summary measure Disability-Adjusted Years DALYs, takes account Lived Disability [YLD] addition disease—the vs 688,594).7Centre A limitation our brief absence YLD contributed non-fatal cases, although evidence indicates arose comprising 95 99·3% burden.10Cuschieri Calleja N. Devleesschauwer B. Wyper GMA. Estimating direct Malta year.BMC 21: 1827https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11893-4Crossref (7) Scholar, 11Moon L. Reynolds A. Gourley Australia 2020.Int Epidemiol. 50 (dyab168-452)Crossref 12Singh B.B. Khatkar M.S. al.Disability-adjusted (DALYs) India, 2020.Sci Rep. 2022; 12: 2454https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06505-zCrossref (3) 13Rommel von der Lippe Plass al.The Germany 2020: course pandemic.Dtsch Ärztebl Int. 118: 145https://doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.m2021.0147Crossref (35) Future work underway quantify morbidity effects including "long COVID"—a collective term denoting prolonged persistent symptoms those recovered SARS-CoV-2 infection14Raveendran A.V. Jayadevan R. Sashidharan Long COVID: an overview.Diabetes Metab Syndr Clin Res Rev. 15: 869-875https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2021.04.007Crossref (105) Scholar—which will require further understanding order assign disability weights calculation YLD. Competing risk should considered when interpreting these estimates, where likely least some attributed replaced would causes.15Wyper G.M. Fletcher Grant I. al.Measuring Scotland, 2020.Arch 80: 105https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00862-xCrossref (5) These highlight has considerable Malaysian population. While recognise preliminary do not even begin magnitude losses experienced wider ranging beyond loss life, hope reporting comparative lends perspective debate whether implementation radical mitigation measures multiple movement control orders (i.e., lockdowns) necessary. Continued estimation regular intervals helpful quantifying potential averted rollout National Immunisation Programme (Program Imunisasi Kebangsaan, PICK). did receive any specific grant funding agencies public, commercial, not-for-profit sectors.