Species extinction risk might increase out of reserves: allowances for conservation of threatened butterfly Actinote quadra (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) under global warming

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ncon.2015.11.009
• Publication Date: 2015-12-02T13:16:23Z
• Authors: Thadeu Sobral-Souza; Ronaldo Bastos Fr...; Matheus Souza Lim...
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; Ecology; Extinction risk; Ecological niche models; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Conservation biogeography; 13. Climate action; Atlantic Forest; Climate change; Ecological corridor; Nature and Landscape Conservation

AbstractClimate change is an important factor affecting species dispersal and distribution through time and the accelerated global warming has currently concerned decision makers and conservationists. Because protected areas are spatially static, species extinction risk is generally expected to increase under climate change scenarios as a consequence of range shift and decrease. This study aims to understand the current conservation status of Actinote quadra, a neotropical threatened butterfly species, as well as predict how it will be in the future. By coupling ecological niche modeling and climatic simulations, we predicted the species distribution in different future global warming scenarios (2050 and 2070) and estimated the proportion of species range overlapping protected areas through time. Our findings showed a generalized decrease of the potential distribution of A. quadra in the end of 21st century, with the most prominent range loss predicted to occur out of protected areas. Although climate change will potentially drive A. quadra into reserves, the predicted range collapse would be enough to increase its extinction risk from vulnerable, like currently categorized, to the status of critically endangered in accordance to IUCN red list criteria. Taking into account the fragmented and discontinuous landscapes across the Atlantic Forest's hotspot, we propose a conservation strategy for A. quadra based on potential ecological corridors linking climatically suitable areas and discuss the need for amplifying and connecting the current protected areas to maintain this threatened species at longer time under a global warming scenario.