The impact of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics in an SEI–SIS model

• DOI: 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2021.103363
• Publication Date: 2021-05-27T17:58:18Z
• Authors: Yazhi Li; Lili Liu
• Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Epidemic model

Abstract Dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades globally. In order to investigate the spread of dengue with vector control, especially, the impact of Wolbachia on dengue transmission, a mathematical model is established and analyzed to study dengue transmission between humans and mosquitoes. Firstly, model qualitative analysis including the existence and local asymptotic stability of dengue-free equilibria and endemic equilibria is done. It is found that dengue will disappear when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and dengue will prevail when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. More important finding is that the persistence of Wolbachia is determined by its fitness effect on mosquitoes, and Wolbachia can drastically reduce dengue fever transmission. All the results are verified by numerical simulation. Secondly, sensitivity analysis is done to explore the relative importance of different parameters on the system. It is obtained that parameters with strong sensitivity and controllability are the biting rate, the probability of dengue infection between mosquitoes and humans and the recovery rate of infectious humans. Finally, the control methods are discussed.