Identifying factors and predicting the future land-use change of protected area in the agricultural landscape of Malaysian peninsula for conservation planning

• DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100298
• Publication Date: 2020-03-06T02:55:21Z
• Authors: Nur Hairunnisa Ra...; Saiful Arif Abdullah; Muhammad Imam Has...
• Keywords: Elevation (ballistics); Agricultural land

Abstract Given that surrounding land-use change affects the function of protected areas, it is crucial to identify the driving forces that influence them and modelling future changes to prevent further decline of natural resources. Thus far, most of the studies predicting future land-use in the protected area are not considering to measure the driving force of land-use change inside and outside protected areas separately. As a result, it is not clear for protected area managers and policymakers to focus on the relevant underlying factors of land-use change inside and outside the protected areas. This study aims to identify the significant driving forces of land-use change inside and outside the Tasek Bera Ramsar Site and how it determines the future land-use inside and outside this protected area separately. To achieve these objectives, past LULC maps of 1988, 2000, and 2014 were developed using ERDAS and ArcGIS software package. The LCM module was used to identify the appropriate drivers of land-use change and predicting the LULC scenario of 2028, based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Markov Chain analysis. The MLP was trained with six variables, including; elevation, slope, soil type, distance from the forest edge, distance from the road, and distance from the river. The result revealed that the most significant driving forces were the distance from forest edge followed by distance from road and soil type. The model validation showed an accuracy more than 75%, and this indicates that the selected variable is acceptable and reliable. The simulated LULC maps of 2028 showed the forest areas inside and outside the Tasek Bera Ramsar Site continue to decline primarily converted to commercial agriculture. The future rate of forest loss will increase and put biodiversity at risk if proper action is not taken. Thus, information obtained from this study can be utilised in decision-making tools to safeguard, conserve, and implement law enforcement in the protected area.