National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.197
• Publication Date: 2018-05-26T01:48:47Z
• Authors: A. Abdelkader; A. Elshorbagy; M. Tuninetti; F. Laio; L. Ridolfi; H. Fahmy; A.Y. Hoekstra
• Keywords: Virtual water; Water use; Water trading

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The has two components: (1) model that simulates agricultural, industrial municipal uses, available land resources; (2) an international trade captures exports imports related to in crops animal products. National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) is applied Egypt, water-poor country world's largest importer wheat. Egypt's food gaps country's (virtual water) are estimated over baseline period (1986-2013) projected up 2050 based on four scenarios. growing rapidly as result steep population growth limited resources. NWFT shows nexus dynamics, uses different sectors, their compounding effects gap self-sufficiency. sensitivity reveals solving problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, awareness programs aimed lowering will be essential addition traditional resources development solution. Both global models project similar trends gap. can easily adapted other nations regions.