The effect of ambient temperature on the activity of influenza and influenza like illness in Jiangsu Province, China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.065
• Publication Date: 2018-07-19T23:34:13Z
• Authors: Qigang Dai; Wang Ma; Haodi Huang; Ke Xu; Xian Qi; Huiyan Yu; Fei Deng; Changjun Bao; Xiang Huo
• Keywords: China; Meteorology; 13. Climate action; Influenza, Human; Temperature; Humans; Environmental Exposure; Seasons; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences; 3. Good health

We aimed to evaluate and quantify the association between ambient temperature and activity of influenza like illness (ILI) and influenza in Jiangsu Province, China.Daily data of meteorology, influenza-like illness and detected influenza virus from 1 April 2013 to 27 March 2016 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the exposure-lag-response of ILI and influenza activity to daily average temperature.Influenza A virus (Flu-A) circulated throughout the year with two peaks at -4 °C and 28 °C respectively, while influenza B (Flu-B) viruses were usually tested positive in winter or early spring and peaked at 5 °C. The lag-response curves revealed that the RR of ILI increased with time and peaked 1 day later at low temperature (3 °C), however, the maximum RR of ILI caused by high temperature (26 °C) appeared immediately on day 0, the similar phenomena of immediate effect to ILI at high temperature were also observed in the lag-response curve for Flu-A or Flu-B.ILI and Flu-A experienced two peaks of circulates at both low and high temperature in Jiangsu. The influenza viruses activity did drive up the rising of ILI%, particularly the activity of Flu-A which circulated throughout the year played a crucial role. Regional homogeneity was the relatively mainstream in aspects of cumulative association between influenza activity and temperature in Jiangsu Province.