Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065
• Publication Date: 2021-09-01T02:07:23Z
• Authors: Joern Birkmann; Ali Jamshed; Joanna M. McMillan; Daniel Feldmeyer; Edmond Totin; William Solecki; Zelina Zaiton Ibr...; Debra Roberts; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Hans-Otto Poertner; Mark Pelling; Riyanti Djalante; Matthias Garschagen; Walter Leal Filho; Debarati Guha-Sapir; Andrés Alegría
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Natural hazard; Vulnerability index; Social vulnerability; Adaptive capacity

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of research been devoted improving quality information hazard data, including exposure specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention given assessment embedded social, economic historical conditions that foster societies. A number assessments based indicators have developed past years. Yet an essential question remains how validate those at scale. This paper examines different options in terms their internal external validity, focusing two indicator systems used WorldRiskIndex INFORM index. The reviews these index best practices same time presents new analysis results show linkages between level disaster outcomes. Both review support each other help communicate validity uncertainty assessments. Next statistical validation methods, we discuss importance appropriate link indicators, data indicandum. We found mortality per event from floods, drought storms 15 times higher for countries ranked highly vulnerable compared classified low vulnerable. These findings highlight starting points move towards resilient development. Priority should be not just regions are likely face more future but also confronted with high already.