Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150838
• Publication Date: 2021-10-08T22:18:01Z
• Authors: M. Petala; M. Kostoglou; Th. Karapantsios; C.I. Dovas; Th. Lytras; D. Paraskevis; E. Roilides; A. Koutsolioutsou...; G. Panagiotakopoulos; V. Sypsa; S. Metallidis; A. Papa; E. Stylianidis; A. Papadopoulos; S. Tsiodras; N. Papaioannou
• Keywords: Pandemic; Attack rate

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading community. Most efforts worldwide by scientific community commercial companies focus on formulation protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis wastewater approaches addressing quantitative relationship between WBE are lacking. In present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses input number daily positive tests together with highly non-linear shedding rate curve individuals estimate evolution global virus along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study using actual data city Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during outbreak November 2020 reveals conditions under can be used warning tool predicting pandemic outbreaks. It shown that capacity different days depends strongly apart day maximum infected their disease cycle testing. The indicate average around 2 Moreover, imply there exists proportion unreported (asymptomatic persons mild symptoms do not seek advice) reported cases. increases detection improves substantially presence increasing For at peak mid-November 2020, reached 4 times