The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950
• Publication Date: 2024-07-26T10:25:36Z
• Authors: Albert Ciceu; Flavius Bălăcenoiu; Maarten de Groot; Debojyoti Chakrab...; Dimitrios Avtzis; Marek Barta; Simon Blaser; Matteo Bracalini; Bastien Castagneyrol; Ulyana A. Chernova; Ejup Çota; György Csóka; Mirza Dautbasic; Milka Glavendekic; Yuri I. Gninenko; Gernot Hoch; Karel Hradil; Martin Husemann; Valentyna Meshkova; Osman Mujezinovic; Serap Mutun; Tiziana Panzavolta; Márton Paulin; Josep M. Riba-Flinch; Nikolay Simov; Kiril Sotirovski; Serghei Vasilciuc; Milan Zúbrik; Silvio Schueler
• Keywords: Environmental niche modelling; Species distribution

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European forests. This species, native North America, in last two decades rapidly extended its range Europe, raising concerns about potential impact on continent's invaluable populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study assess distribution, colonization patterns, and ecological niche of bug Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, social media reports. delineate realized future employed ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021–2040, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) project evaluate species' future. Our analysis revealed that hotspots rich host occurrence for invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within suitable habitat. Furthermore, ranges Turkey (Quercus cerris L.) Hungarian frainetto offer entirely environments bug. contrast, pedunculate sessile currently show only 40 % 50 suitability colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate transformation habitat with these increasing by up 90 %. shift underlines evolving landscape where may exploit more available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises pressing need proactive measures manage stop expanding presence, which lead harmful population landscape.