Linking excess mortality to mobility data during the first wave of COVID-19 in England and Wales

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100799
• Publication Date: 2021-04-21T14:43:45Z
• Authors: Ugofilippo Basellini; Diego Alburez-Gut...; Emanuele Del Fava; Daniela Perrotta; Marco Bonetti; Carlo G. Camarda; Emilio Zagheni
• Keywords: effects on excess mortality; 0301 basic medicine; Human mobility; ENGLAND; EPIDEMICS; [SHS.DEMO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography; Covid-19 pandemic; Article; EXCESS_MORTALITY; WALES; 03 medical and health sciences; [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases; UNITED_KINGDOM; H1-99; [SDV.MHEP.ME] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Emerging diseases; [SDV.MHEP.ME]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Emerging diseases; [SHS.DEMO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography; SARS-CoV-2; MORTALITY; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; DEATH; 1. No poverty; England and Wales; REGIONAL_DISPARITY; mortality; mobility reductions; 3. Good health; Social sciences (General); [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie; DIGITAL TRACE DATA, HUMAN MOBILITY, NON-PHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS, SARS-COV-2; [SDV.MHEP.MI] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases; [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie; DATA_ANALYSIS; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; GEOGRAPHIC_MOBILITY; Digital trace data

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.