Forecasting of tropical cyclones ASANI (2022) and MOCHA (2023) over the Bay of Bengal - real time challenges to forecasters

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.06.002
• Publication Date: 2024-06-06T12:30:09Z
• Authors: S.D. Kotal; T. Arulalan; M. Mohapatra
• Keywords: Landfall; Forecast verification

This study examines the track and intensity forecasts of two typical Bay Bengal tropical cyclones (TC) ASANI MOCHA. The analysis various Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model [ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Forecast), NCEP (National Centers Environmental Prediction), NCUM Range Forecast-Unified Model), IMD (India Meteorological Department), HWRF (Hurricane Research Forecasting)], MME (Multi-model Ensemble), SCIP (Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction) model, OFCL (Official) shows that MOCHA were reasonably good, but there large errors wide variation in Among all forecasts, forecast least general respectively. Also, landfall point ASANI, No is found to be consistently better time ECMWF, same order HWRF, IMD, NCEP, comparable up 48 h thereafter general. ECMWF highest both TCs. results also show although significant improvement limited or no previous decades challenges still persists real forecasting due inconsistency different TC cases.