A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest

• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100369
• Publication Date: 2021-08-06T03:25:10Z
• Authors: Wang Zhou; Kaiyu Guan; Bin Peng; Zhuo Wang; Rong Fu; Bo Li; Elizabeth A. Ains...; Evan DeLucia; Lei Zhao; Zhangliang Chen
• Keywords: 2. Zero hunger; Synthetic climate generation; Rainfed corn; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Rainfed soybean; Crop yield prediction; 13. Climate action; Meteorology. Climatology; U.S. Midwest; QC851-999; Risk assessment; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are expected to increase with global climate change, more frequent, intense longer-lasting extreme events, posing greater challenges for the security of food production. Here we proposed a generic framework assess impact climate-induced crop yield risk under both current future scenarios by combining stochastic model synthetic generation well-validated statistical model. The patterns were generated using extended Empirical Orthogonal Function method based on historically observed projected conditions. We applied our corn soybean U.S. Midwest historical found that: (1) Midwest, about 45% 40% interannual variability yield, respectively, can be explained climate; (2) level is higher southwest northwest regions corresponding 25% reduction compared other regions; (3) severity 1988 2012 major droughts quantified represent 21-year 30-year events corn, 7-year 12-year soybean, respectively; (4) will scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 or RCP at 2050) condition, averaged decreases increases soybean. results this study enable applications management policies practices agriculture sectors.