The future of extreme meteorological fire danger under climate change scenarios for Iberia

• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100623
• Publication Date: 2023-10-26T17:09:11Z
• Authors: Virgilio A. Bento; Daniela C.A. Lima; Luana C. Santos; Miguel M. Lima; Ana Russo; Silvia A. Nunes; Carlos C. DaCamara; Ricardo M. Trigo; Pedro M.M. Soares
• Keywords: Multi-model ensemble; Fire weather index; Meteorology. Climatology; Atmospheric instability; Euro-CORDEX; QC851-999; Iberian peninsula; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Wildfires are disturbances that occur in ecosystems, both naturally and derived from anthropogenic factors, often caused by extreme meteorological conditions, have recurrently destructive impacts on forests throughout the world. The complex nature of interactions between wildfires, their dynamics, human interference a climate change perspective has motivated growing number researchers to address this topic. fire weather index (FWI) been extensively used analyze link danger its local regional characteristics contributing severity these events, as well real-time operational monitoring at national international levels. Recently, new improved includes effect atmospheric instability developed, so-called FWIe. presence atmosphere may be boost more energetic such June 2017 event central Portugal, making it an important asset risk management. Here, comprehensive examination future Iberian Peninsula was performed. Additionally, comparative analysis FWI FWIe pursued context change. We computed using multi-model ensemble composed 13 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations forced different global models. historical period (1971–2000) three projected periods 30 years (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2 100), under emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were considered. When assessing modelled FWIe, results show summer values tend substantially increase when assuming benchmark, with expected extension and, lower magnitude, September. north-western region Iberia, including north Portugal north-western-to-central Spain regions larger increases future, which critical since fire-prone vegetation. This work also points large differences projections among scenarios, calling for distinct set adaptation needs should timely prepared stakeholders authorities.