ENSO-based outlook of droughts and agricultural outcomes in Afghanistan

• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100697
• Publication Date: 2024-05-28T03:27:30Z
• Authors: Shraddhanand Shukla; Fahim Zaheer; Andrew Hoell; Weston Anderson; Harikishan Jayanthi; Greg Husak; Donghoon Lee; Brian Barker; Shahriar Pervez; Kimberly Slinski; Christina Justice; James Rowland; Amy L. McNally; Michael Budde; James Verdin
• Keywords: Meteorology. Climatology; 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology; QC851-999

Drought is one of the key drivers food insecurity in Afghanistan, which among most insecure countries world. In this study, we build on previous research and seek to answer central question: "What influence El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought outlooks agricultural yield outcome how do these influences vary spatially?" We so by utilizing multiple indicators droughts available wheat reports. find a clear distinction probability (defined as being lower tercile) Afghanistan during La Niña compared Niño events since 1981. The increased Niña, particularly North, Northeast, West regions. are related an increase snow drought, parts Amu Darya basin. It found that relative events, water equivalent [total runoff] January-March (March-July total runoff) decreases between 9% 30% (28% 42%) for five major basins country. be higher than 70% rainfed irrigated areas This result at least partly supported reported composites tend across all regions case (statistically significant West, South regions) some cases wheat. results study have direct implications improving early warning worsening given now long-lead skillful forecasts ENSO up 18-24 months advance, could potentially used provide earlier