Accounting for uncertainty from zero inflation and overdispersion in paleoecological studies of predation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework

• DOI: 10.1017/pab.2021.27
• Publication Date: 2021-09-06T19:49:34Z
• Authors: Jansen A. Smith; John C. Handley; Gregory P. Dietl
• Keywords: Overdispersion; Paleoecology

Abstract The effects of overdispersion and zero inflation (e.g., poor model fits) can result in misinterpretation studies using count data. These have not been evaluated paleoecological predation are further complicated by preservational bias time averaging. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty from estimates specimen trace counts. demonstrate its application published data on drilling predators their prey time-averaged death assemblages the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results indicate that frequencies underestimated when is considered, this effect likely compounded removal individuals traces via bias. Time averaging reduces accumulation rare taxa events; however, it increases comparisons between introducing variability sampling effort. That is, there an analytical cost with data, manifesting as broader confidence regions. Ecological inferences paleoecology be strengthened accounting inherent processes which they generated.