Disaggregating Ethno-Nationalist Civil Wars: A Dyadic Test of Exclusion Theory

• DOI: 10.1017/s0020818308080181
• Publication Date: 2008-07-03T05:45:26Z
• Authors: Halvard Buhaug; Lars-Erik Cederman; Jan Ketil Rød
• Keywords: Fractionalization; Ethnic conflict

Contemporary conflict research usually measures the influence of ethnicity on by capturing ethnic constellations as country-based indices, such fractionalization or polarization. However, aggregated are likely to conceal actual operation actor-specific mechanisms. In this article, therefore, we introduce a disaggregated model that groups' access power. We do so disaggregating both and level explicitly geo-coded center-periphery dyads. This procedure allows us measure power balance between politically excluded groups dominant actors in terms group sizes, distances center periphery, roughness latter's terrain. rely geographic information systems (GIS) compute demographic ethno-geographic variables. The dyadic analysis enables show exclusion powerful minorities increases likelihood considerably. addition, risk is positively associated with extent rough terrain peripheral group's home region its distance from political center.