Climate change-induced range shift of the endemic epiphytic lichenLobaria pindarensisin the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

• DOI: 10.1017/s002428291900001x
• Publication Date: 2019-04-26T12:19:35Z
• Authors: Shiva DEVKOTA; Lyudmyla DYMYTROVA; Ram Prasad CHAUDHARY; Silke WERTH; Christoph SCHEIDE...
• Keywords: Species distribution; Epiphyte

Abstract The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region harbours some of the richest and most diverse ecosystems on planet that are now facing substantial threats through changes in climate, land use human population growth, with serious consequences for biodiversity this mountainous region. In paper we evaluated effects climate change distribution tripartite epiphytic macrolichen Lobaria pindarensis , considered to be endemic Himalayas. To predict current future species applied Random Forest modelling algorithm climatic variables a post-processing projected distributions using map habitat types study We calibrated models based 1397 presences within an altitudinal range 2036–4000 m extrapolated them according two IPCC scenarios (RCP 2·6 RCP 8·5). Based results ensemble modelling, new localities where L. might potentially occur were predicted. Our simulations predicted expansion lichen north-east higher altitudes response change, although species’ low dispersal abilities local availability trees as substratum will considerably limit latitudinal shifts. By contrast, assuming can migrate previously unoccupied areas, depending different scenarios, our forecasted loss 30–70% pindarensis. main reason simulated is expected increase mean annual temperature (by 1·5–3·7 °C) total precipitation 56–125 mm). contribute further evidence high sensitivity macrolichens, especially those from mountain particularly emphasize vulnerability . Thus, stress need develop formulate conservation measures strategies protection