Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis

• DOI: 10.1017/s095026882000182x
• Publication Date: 2020-08-18T07:06:15Z
• Authors: Hongfang Qiu; Dewei Zeng; Jing Yi; Hua Zhu; Ling Hu; Dan Jing; Mengliang Ye
• Keywords: Original Paper; China; Models, Statistical; Incidence; Models, Biological; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Risk Factors; Humans; Conjunctivitis, Acute Hemorrhagic; Seasons; Forecasting; Retrospective Studies

Abstract Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is a highly contagious eye disease, the prediction of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is very important to prevent and grasp its development trend. We use the exponential smoothing model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to analyse and predict. The monthly incidence data from 2004 to 2017 were used to fit two models, the actual incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in 2018 was used to validate the model. Finally, the prediction effect of exponential smoothing is best, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error were 0.0152 and 0.1871, respectively. In addition, the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing had a seasonal trend characteristic, with the peak period from June to September each year.