Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

• DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c06547
• Publication Date: 2021-01-26T21:45:40Z
• Authors: Francisco Ralston...; Michael Craig; Paulina Jaramillo; Mario Bergés; Edson Severnini; Aviva Loew; Haibo Zhai; Yifan Cheng; Bart Nijssen; Nathalie Voisin; John Yearsley
• Keywords: Investment; Electricity demand; Investment Decisions

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On demand side, change could shift patterns due increased air temperatures. supply lead deratings of thermal units changes temperature, water and availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework analyze how compounding climate-change impacts on affect long-term planning decisions system. In southeast U.S., found that result a 35% increase installed capacity by 2050 relative reference case. Participation renewables, particularly solar, fleet increased, driven mostly expected summertime peak demand. Such requirements would investment costs approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over next 30 years, compared These align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting adaptation strategies can converge.