A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming

• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15399
• Publication Date: 2017-05-05T10:13:30Z
• Authors: Olivier Cotto; Johannes Wessely; Damien Georges; Günther Klonner; Max Schmid; Stefan Dullinger; Wilfried Thuiller; Frédéric Guillaume
• Keywords: Maladaptation; Extinction (optical mineralogy); Environmental niche modelling; Environmental change; Species distribution

Abstract Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species’ ability to track its ecological niche or evolve new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven range shifts use modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an forecasting framework combines with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, show accounting for dynamics when predicting responses is crucial. Perennial persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by modelling, causing delayed losses; however, their evolutionary are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due maladaptation occurs faster contraction range, especially most abundant species. Monitoring local abundance rather may likely better inform risks under change.