Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8851
• Publication Date: 2015-07-31T10:06:54Z
• Authors: Matthew J. Carroll; Andreas Heinemeyer; James W. Pearce-H...; Peter Dennis; Chris West; Joseph Holden; Zoe E. Wallage; Chris D. Thomas
• Keywords: Persistence (discontinuity)

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show climate, processes food chains combine influence population performance species British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which abundance craneflies (keystone invertebrates), turn observed abundances persistence three ecosystem-specialist bird feed on during breeding season. projections suggest falling water tables cause 56-81% declines cranefly and, hence, 15-51% reductions these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude (precipitation, temperature topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration desiccation invertebrates) ecological (food chains) determine distributions predators.