Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06167-4
• Publication Date: 2018-09-20T16:14:43Z
• Authors: Cornelius Langenb...; Matthew Weingarten; Mark D. Zoback
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; Science; Q; 01 natural sciences; Article; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability induced space time. In our hybrid physical-statistical model, seismicity is driven by rate injection-induced pressure increases at any given location spatial variations number stress state preexisting basement faults affected increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 100 M ≥ 3 anticipated 2018, 2019 2020, respectively, corresponding probabilities potentially 5 32, 24 19%. We identify areas where produced-water more likely cause seismicity. Our can be used evaluate scenarios intended mitigate hazards.