Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
• Publication Date: 2018-10-08T11:15:58Z
• Authors: Heidi Webber; Frank Ewert; Jørgen E. Olesen; Christoph Müller; Stefan Fronzek; Alex C. Ruane; Maryse Bourgault; Pierre Martre; Behnam Ababaei; Marco Bindi; Roberto Ferrise; Robert Finger; Nándor Fodor; Clara Gabaldón-Leal; Thomas Gaiser; Mohamed Jabloun; Kurt-Christian Ke...; Jon I. Lizaso; Ignacio J. Lorite; Loic Manceau; Marco Moriondo; Claas Nendel; Alfredo Rodríguez; Margarita Ruiz-Ramos; Mikhail A. Semenov; Stefan Siebert; Tommaso Stella; Pierre Stratonovitch; Giacomo Trombi; Daniel Wallach
• Keywords: 0301 basic medicine; Simulation-Model; extreme events; Hot Temperature; 1300 Biochemistry; maïs; Science; Climate Change; Air Co2 Enrichment; Genetics and Molecular Biology; drought; Climate change; Crop models; Climatic drivers; Grain maize; Winter wheat; Zea mays; 333; 630; Article; modèle de rendement; 03 medical and health sciences; Canopy Temperature; température; [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology; 3100 Physics and Astronomy; Elevated Co2; Triticum; 2. Zero hunger; Semiarid Environments; changement climatique; blé d'hiver; Vegetal Biology; Heat-Stress; Q; Nitrogen Dynamics; 15. Life on land; 1600 Chemistry; Crop Production; 6. Clean water; Droughts; Europe; climate change; Food Security; 13. Climate action; stress hydrique; Seasons; europe; Climate-Change Impacts; crop modelling; Biologie végétale; modèle de production

AbstractUnderstanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.