The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2
• Publication Date: 2022-06-28T10:17:02Z
• Authors: Yusuke Satoh; Kei Yoshimura; Yadu Pokhrel; Hyungjun Kim; Hideo Shiogama; Tokuta Yokohata; Naota Hanasaki; Yoshihide Wada; Peter Burek; Edward Byers; Hannes Müller Sch...; Dieter Gerten; Sebastian Ostberg; Simon Newland Gos...; Julien Eric Stans...; Taikan Oki
• Keywords: Preparedness

Abstract Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, time emergence unprecedented drought conditions change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate changes in frequency (defined as abnormally low river discharge) high and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios existing water resource management measures estimate first regional centered on low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, three namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results high-emission scenario. These regions expected to confront within next 30 years with a likelihood regardless emission scenarios. In addition, obtained herein demonstrate benefits lower-emission pathway reducing emergence. Paris Agreement goals shown be effective unlikely level most regions. appropriate prior adaptation considered indispensable when facing this study underscore importance improving preparedness horizons.