A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6
• Publication Date: 2022-11-04T09:03:05Z
• Authors: Kieran Bhatia; Alexander Baker; Wenchang Yang; Gabriel Vecchi; Thomas Knutson; Hiroyuki Murakami; James Kossin; Kevin Hodges; Keith Dixon; Benjamin Bronselaer; Carolyn Whitlock
• Keywords: Atlantic hurricane; Tropical cyclone scales; Forcing (mathematics); Tropical cyclogenesis; Tropical climate

Abstract Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical behavior have recently enabled documentation upward trends in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal global physical drivers yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare observed environmental parameters simulated natural variability high-resolution climate model. In multiple basins dataset, detect significant increase rates positive contribution from forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around cyclones become more favorable for intensification, models show warming has significantly increased probability changes.